摘要
在考虑环流的动态演变特征在降水预报中重要性的基础上 ,设计了一种环流演变动态相似预报方法 ,在 10 0 0 h Pa气压场、85 0 h Pa温度场、5 0 0 h Pa高度场分别提取 3个物理意义清晰、又具有立体性和多元性的相似因子 ,采用本文设计的二级相似标准 ,以 ECMWF数值预报产品作为预报资料与历史资料库进行滚动映射 ,寻找最优相似个例 ,制作长江上游降水面雨量的逐日滚动预报 。
A dynamic similarity method based on the dynamic development of the atmospheric circulation was applied to the quantitative precipitation forecast.Three dimensional and pluralism features were collected.By two grades of similarity standard,the most similarity case by mapping the ECMWF products with the history data was found and applied to the quantitative precipitation forecast in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River.The method was proved effective.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第6期40-43,47,共5页
Meteorological Monthly
关键词
动态相似
二级标准
降水预报
长江上游
dynamic similarity two grades similarity standard precipitation forecast
