摘要
针对干旱期水安全风险评价惯用的风险指数(DRI)计算中指标权重难以确定的问题,采用改进的熵权方法确定了计算DRI各指标项的权重;通常指标权重对DRI的计算影响较大,为更深入地探讨干旱期水安全风险变化特性,根据泛系观控理论研究了干旱期水安全评价各方案的风险及其比较收益,并从信息熵的角度以约束信息量对各方案的风险进行了定性及定量分析,在海河流域水安全风险评价应用表明,该方法揭示了干旱期水安全风险的内在规定性,可应用于水安全风险评价中,所得结果可为海河流域干旱期水安全风险管理提供决策参考.
Risk assessment of water security during drought period is an important content in risk management of drought,the assessment results guides the implement of decision directly.The improved entropy weight method is applied to calculate the weights of DRI which is usually used in the risk assessment of water security during drought period due to the current study says the weights of indices are difficult to determine.Because the weights of indices affects the DRI,to discuss the risk change characteristic deep, the risk and its gain of every alternative is studied based on pansystems observation-control methodology, the risk of every alternative is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively from the point of information entropy with binding information in the risk assessment of water security during drought period.The case study in Haihe river basin demonstrates that the viewing-controlling risk methodology reflects the internal instinct of risk of water security during drought period,and is applicable to the risk assessment of water security during drought period.The obtained results are helpful to water security risk management during drought period for Haihe river basin.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期867-871,共5页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
国家自然科学基金(51190094
50909073)
湖北省自然科学基金(2010CDB08401)
中国长江三峡集团公司项目(CT-09-06-05)
关键词
水安全
风险评价
干旱期
改进的熵权方法
泛系观控理论
海河流域
water security
risk assessment
drought period
improved entropy weight
pansystems observationcontrol theory
Haihe river basin
