摘要
为了稳定石油供给、平抑市场价格、应对突发事件,一般需要建立SPR,以增强国民经济抗风险能力,减少损失。通过建立石油储备动态模型,决定国家的石油储备率水平,进而计算出石油储备量,模型运用冯.诺依曼和奥.摩根斯坦提出的对不确定问题的决策行为选择的期望效用理论的原理,分析了我国进行石油储备的合理性,并在合理的假设前提下加入动态因素,进一步建立模型,得出中国石油战略的储备率和储备量水平,为我国进行SPR提供参考。
In order to stabilize oil supply, control market price, and response to emergencies, we generally need to build SPR to enhance the ability to resist risk of the national economy, and reduce the loss. By establishing the dynamic model of oil reserves, the country＇s oil reserve ratio is determined, and calculates the petroleum reserve. The model uses expect utility theory of decision-making behavior choice about the uncertainty put forward by Von Neumann and Oscar Morgensten to analyze the rationality of the oil reserves, and in reasonable hypothesis, adds dynamic factors and further set a model, gets China＇s strategic petroleum reserves and reserve, providing reference for SPR.
出处
《价值工程》
2012年第11期49-50,共2页
Value Engineering
