摘要
城市供水管网爆管预测预警信息系统以地理信息系统(GIS)为基本框架,加载管网基本属性及供水系统运行数据,采用生存分析和贝叶斯定理建立爆管模糊预测模型;将GIS空间分析功能引入爆管规律分析与研究,建立了爆管的缓冲区分析模型和关闸搜索分析模型,对爆管在空间的分布规律进行分类和综合评价;将预警理论应用于爆管预防日常管理,提出爆管预警指标,结合不同爆管环境、条件,制定合理警限,划分警级,进行爆管状态预警。该系统可为管网管理者提供爆管查询统计、空间分析和预测预警等快速、多层次和直观的信息,以保证管网供水安全。
Based on GIS, basic attributes of water pipe and operating data of the water distribution system, the pipe burst forecasting and warning information system for urban water distribution network was developed. A pipe burst fuzzy prediction model was built using survival analysis method and Bayesian theorem. The GIS spatial analysis was imported to the research of pipe burst. A buffer analysis model and a close valve search analysis model were built. The spatial distribution of pipe burst was analyzed and e- valuated. The alert theory was applied to daily management of pipe burst prevention. Based on environ- mental and pipe burst conditions, a pipe burst alert index was proposed, alert levels were ranked and a reasonable alert limit was established. The system provides network managers with rapid, intuitive and different levels of information on query and statistics, spatial analysis, forecasting and warning of pipe burst to ensure the water supply is safe and reliable.
出处
《中国给水排水》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第7期48-51,共4页
China Water & Wastewater
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50778121
50878140)
关键词
供水管网
爆管分析
地理信息系统
预测预警
water distribution network
analysis of pipe burst
geographic information system
forecasting and warning
