摘要
基于货币数量理论研究外汇占款对通货膨胀的影响有重大意义。首先采用VAR模型和Granger因果关系模型研究外汇占款、货币供应量和通货膨胀率之间的相互影响状况,同时运用脉冲响应模型和方差分解技术研究变量受系统内变量冲击的反应和波动情况。其次进行货币冲销有效性检验,结果显示:央行的货币冲销政策完全有效,货币冲销力度大约为-0.6,货币冲销弹性大于1,从整体来看,货币冲销有效性呈现弱递减趋势。
Based on the quantity theory of money,funds outstanding for foreign exchange have a significant inpacton inflation.Firstly,the VAR model and Granger causality model are used to find the interaction among funds outstanding for foreign exchange,money supply and inflation rates.The Impulse Response analysis and Variance Decomposition are applied for the impact of the variable response and fluctuations.Secondly,we use Monetary Sterilization model to explore the internal relationship between inflation and funds outstanding for foreign exchange.Monetary Sterilization analysis shows: the central bank's monetary sterilization policy is totally effective,monetary sterilization Intensity is about-0.6 and monetary sterilization elasticity is greater than 1.On the whole,the effectiveness of monetary sterilization has a weak decreasing trend.
出处
《财经问题研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第4期55-58,共4页
Research On Financial and Economic Issues
关键词
外汇占款
通货膨胀
货币冲销模型
funds outstanding for foreign exchange
inflation
monetary sterilization model
