摘要
于1980—1984年在黄淮平原的一个疟疾试点进行了疟疾血清学的纵向调查,15岁以下年龄组IFA 阳性率下降趋势与带虫发病率基本一致,通过可逆健化模型从血清阳性率估算疟疾年感染概率,与年带虫发病率颇为接近,表明该数学模型适用于分析疟疾血清学材料,通过疟疾血清学调查和感染概率的估算,能较可靠地评价防治的进展。
Alongitudinal serological survey (IFA) was conducted during 1980-1984 in a pilot site of malarin control in Huang-huai plain.The seropositivity rate among the sampled children in the period was 53.8%,22.7%,7.2%,3.4% and 2.6% respectively,with a trend similar to that of annual parasite incidence (API)i.e.,18.08%,5.13%,1.53%, 0.67% and 0.26% respectively.Estimated infection-probability was calculated by a rev- ersible catalytic model,Y=R/r(I-e-rt) introduced by Molineaux(1981),in which y is proportion of seropositive under the age of 15 years old,R is infection-probabiiity,r is “recovery”rate(arbitrarily supposed to be 1/3 here)and t is median of the age group. The expected values of R were 18.76%,7.71%,2.20%,0.85% and 0.57% respectively which were close to the API as mentioned above.It suggested that the study on the mathematical model for the estimation of infection-probability based on serological data and its applicabiIity in malaria control programmes is worth further pursuing.
出处
《中国寄生虫病防治杂志》
CSCD
1990年第3期203-205,共3页
Chinese Journal of Parasitic Disease Control
