摘要
以1952-2008年统计数据为基础,采用产业经济学、计量经济学和统计学的相关方法,对新疆解放以来的产业结构演进进行了定量分析,并对其与同期全国产业结构演进进行了比较。研究结果表明:1952年以来,新疆与全国产业结构演进存在差异,主要表现在:新疆第一产业比重不断下降,第二、三产业比重不断上升,二产居于主导地位;新疆产业产值比重与就业比重不均衡度不断扩大,且产业结构与就业结构分别呈现"二、三、一"和"一、三、二"特点;新疆的产业结构转换速度先快后慢,且主要依赖第二、三产业的推动,转换方向合理;新疆一产劳动生产率和经济效益低,二产具有后发优势,三产带动就业能力不足,产业发展不平衡且产业结构效益在下降;新疆经济增长结构效益在增强,增长结构中夕阳产业比重高,比较优势产业竞争力有所提高。
Based on the statistical data from 1952 to 2008 and by using such indices as the entropy status of the re- gional industrial structure, similarity index in industrial structure, deviation degree and deviation factor of industrial structure of employment, conversion speed coefficient of the industrial structure and directional coefficient, coeffi- cient of the comparative labor productivity and the different index, this paper makes a quantitative analysis on dy- namic evolution characteristics, such as the overall features of Xinjiang Province＇s industrial structure evolution, evo- lution stages industrial structure of employment, conversion speed of the industrial structure and its shift-share since 1952 ,with the method of shift-share analysis. The results generally be divided into four phases（ 1952 - 1957,1958 are as follows：Xinjiang＇s industrial structure evolution can - 1977,1978 - 1991,1992 - 2008 ）. Xinjiang＇s industrial structure has entered a low-level and orderly state after three times industrial structure evolution. Compared with na- tional industrial structure,there are a lot of similarities in Xinjiang＇s industrial structure, but similarities were in- creased（ from 0.94 in 1953 to 0.99 in 2004 -2008）. In addition, it finds that there have been some differences in evolution of industrial structure between Xinjiang and the whole nation since 1952. The main features are as follows ： Firstly, the primary industry proportion of Xinjiang was declining,, the secondary industry proportion and the tertiary industry proportion of Xinjiang was obviously increasing, the secondary industry is the leading industry. Secondly, imbalance between the proportions of output value and employment in Xinjiang was evidently high, which has en- larged in the recent years. And there is a striking dual structure between towns and countries in Xinjiang, and the industrial structure and employment structure is characterized by ＂two, three, one＂ and＂ one, three, two＂ features. Thirdly, its conversion speed of the industrial structure was fast and then slow, such changes were mainly dependent on the promotion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, which was reasonable. Fourthly, the labor pro- ductivity and economic efficiency of the primary industry is very low, the secondary industry have some advantages, the tertiary industry can not improve employment, the industrial development was unbalanced and the efficiency of the industrial structure was declining. Lastly, the effects of its economic growth structure have been increasing, but sunset industry took a high proportion in economic growth. Fortunately, its competitiveness of comparative advantage industry has been enhanced a lot. Great efforts should be made to improve the optimization and fully develop the secondary industry, So that it can promote the development of the primary industry and tertiary industry, which should be the future direction of industrial restructure of Xinjiang Province.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期177-185,共9页
Arid Land Geography
基金
中国科学院西部计划"塔里木河流域社会经济跨越式发展与生态安全"(KZCX2-XB2-03-03)
中国科学院西部博士资助项目(XBB5201009)
关键词
新疆
产业结构演进
偏离-份额分析法
Xinjiang
industrial structure evolution
shift-share method
