摘要
采用EMD和FFT方法对中国的生猪产量波动周期进行分析,结果表明:(1)我国生猪产量总体发展特征是在波动中不断上升,但年增长率呈缓慢下降趋势;(2)就产量而言,我国生猪波动周期以3.33年短周期为主(贡献率高达53.7%),此外还存在一个较为清晰的5年中周期以及更长周期的波动尺度;(3)近几年生猪产量波动越来越大,波动周期性也越加模糊。
In this paper, Chinese hog cycle was analyzed based on EMD and FFT. The results indicated that Chinese pork production was increased with fluctuation, and its growth rate was deereased gently. EMD analysis confirms that the fluctuations of pork production had 3.33-year, 5-year and long-year time scales. And fluctuations of the 3.33-year was the most prominent （accumulated to 53.7%）. Furthermore, pork production was fluctuating seriously in the last few years, and periodicity also became uncertain.
出处
《广东农业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第4期153-156,共4页
Guangdong Agricultural Sciences
基金
环保公益性行业科研专项(201009067)
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(PM-zx021-201106-063)
