摘要
本文运用税收经济效应原理系统阐释所得税、商品税与财产税对居民消费需求的作用机制,在考察我国税制结构整体状况及其对居民消费需求负面影响的基础上,通过建立动态面板数据模型与采用GMM估计方法实证估计税收政策对居民消费需求的结构效应,结果发现:一方面,财产税挤入居民消费;另一方面,商品税和所得税均挤出居民消费需求,但开征利息税能够显著降低个人所得税对居民消费需求的抑制效应。基于理论分析与实证估计结果,本文认为,政府为了提高税收政策对居民消费需求调节的针对性与激励效果,应充分发挥税收政策的结构效应,积极推进与实行"有增有减"的新一轮税制改革,构建与扩大居民消费需求相协调的税制结构。
This paper applied the principle of tax economic effect to systematically explain the mechanism of commodity tax,income tax and property tax on the residents＇ consumption demand.By examining overall situation of tax system structure and the negative impact about the residents＇ consumption demand,this paper established a dynamic panel data model and used GMM to estimate the structure effects of tax policies on the residents＇ consumption demand.The empirical results showed that,the property tax crowded into the residents＇ consumption,and the commodity tax and income tax crowded out the residents＇ consumption.Imposing interest tax could significantly reduce the depression effect of individual income tax on the residents＇ consumption.According to theoretical analysis and empirical results,this paper argued that in order to improve the pertinence and incentive effects of tax policies on the residents＇ consumption demand,the government should take advantage of structure effects of tax policies,and actively promote and implement the new structural reform of tax system to build tax structure in coordination with expanding the residents＇ consumption demand.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第3期53-63,共11页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"居民边际消费倾向与扩大国内消费问题研究"(10CJY016)
关键词
税收政策
居民消费需求
结构效应
动态面板数据模型
tax policies
the residents＇ consumption demand
structure effects
dynamic panel data model
