摘要
通过界定水资源承载能力的概念和内涵,提出基于总量控制条件下人口-经济-水资源三者系统协调耦合的水资源承载能力分析计算方法,分别采用产业结构调整和水资源优化配置模型等措施,以赣江袁河流域水资源承载能力分析计算进行例证。研究结果表明:在用水总量控制、保障社会发展水平和人均GDP水平条件下,(1)优化后行业用水定额下降,流域需水总量减少,水资源利用效率提高,目标年2015年和2030年流域需水量调整后较调整前分别减少0.36亿m3、0.90亿m3,较调整前下降了2.3%和5.3%;(2)对于不同目标年,优化后用水区域可承载GDP和承载人口有所增加,2015年和2030年全流域可承载GDP分别增加26.49亿元和151.91亿元,全流域可承载人口分别增加7.73万人和18.74万人。
By defining the concept and content of water resources carrying capacity,the method of water resources carrying capacity was put forward based on the coordination coupling of population,economy and water resources system according to total quantity control of water consumed.The method adopted measures such as industrial structure adjustment and water resources allocation model,and it was applied in the Yuan River Basin.The results showed that the fixed optimized water declined,the total using water decreased and the water use efficiency improved in each industry.The water demanded reduced by 36 and 90 million cubic meter compared with the water before adjustment,and the reduce margin was about 2.3% and 5.3%.For the different target years,the carrying capacity of the average GDP and people increased to a certain extent in the water using regions.The GDP of the whole basin increased by 2.649 and 15.191 billion Yuan,and the people increased by 77 300 and 18 740 of the whole basin in 2015 and 2030.
出处
《长江流域资源与环境》
CAS
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第3期276-282,共7页
Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin
基金
江西省科技厅科技攻关项目(2009BSA15200)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费(201001054)
江西省水利厅重大科研项目(200809)
关键词
用水总量控制
承载能力
优化配置模型
协调耦合
袁河
total quantity control
carrying capacity
optimum allocation model
coordination coupling
the Yuan River Basin
