摘要
事件树法是一种常见的大坝风险分析方法 ,针对基本事件发生概率难以确定的问题,引入基于模糊数的事件树法对大坝风险进行预测。利用专家的评判,采用德尔菲法和判断矩阵法,将模糊性语言转换为三角模糊数,并经过解模糊处理,对溃坝风险进行定量评估,并将其应用在某水库中。
the fault tree is a common method for the dam risk analysis. The probability for the fault is difficult to determine the basic problem; The fuzzy mathematic based on the fault tree method is introduced to predict the risk of the dam. With the judges of experts, the Delphi method and the determining matrix method, the fault tree method based on fuzzy language is converted into triangular fuzzy mathematic and experienced fuzzy solution treatment, the dam failure is carried out an assessment in quantities, which was applied in a reservoir.
出处
《吉林水利》
2012年第2期1-4,8,共5页
Jilin Water Resources
关键词
事件树
模糊数
风险概率
溃坝
fault tree
fuzzy mathemati
risk probability
dam failure
