摘要
提出了针对于经典PERT方法假设条件过于苛刻,方差估算公式固定单一等局限性的改进方法。仅保留一个PERT假设条件,按照Malcolm(1959)最初的意图,将最可能值m与Beta分布的众数M相对应,并且考虑其对方差的影响将PERT方差公式进行改进。仿真与实例证明,改进后的PERT方差估算方法具有更大的柔性和合理性,能够更好地反映多变的、不确定的实际问题。
PERT technique has some limitation in use such as so many assumptions,the constant variance formula and so on.This article gives the improvement to these problems.Under only one PERT assumption,we improve the variance formula by,as the original intent of Malcolm（1959）,aligning the most likely value m with the mode of Beta distribution as well as considering how the value m affects the variance.Simulation and empirical application indicate that the improved PERT variance estimating approach is not only more flexible and reasonable in application but also more accurate to address the problem of highly variable and uncertain reality.
出处
《工业工程与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期36-39,共4页
Industrial Engineering and Management
基金
航空科学基金资助项目(2010ZG53074)
国家社会科学基金资助项目(10BGL022)
