摘要
水资源脆弱性是评价水资源系统对自然条件变动或人类开发利用影响承载能力的重要指标,其评价对于水资源保护工作非常重要。从自然因素、人为因素、综合因素三方面给出13个指标,利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,综合相关研究及经验确定各指标的标准值,综合进行区域水资源脆弱性评价。以海河流域为例开展了实例研究,海河流域现状的水资源脆弱度为59.7,属于中度脆弱区;在未来气候变化条件下,经过人工水资源调控措施,海河流域2020年、2030年水资源脆弱度分别为58.64、58.63,证明水资源调控措施将会改善海河流域水资源条件。该方法对流域级水资源系统的脆弱性评价有重要意义。
Vulnerability of water resources is a vital index to assess the effects of natural changes or human use against the wa ter resources system and vulnerability assessment is important for protecting water resources. In this paper, a framework of wa ter resources assessment was outlined and applied to the Haihe river basin. A list of 13 indicators for vulnerability assessment were identified and categorized including the natural factors, human factors, and comprehensive factors. The weight of each in dictor was calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process, and the standard value for each indicator was obtained from the ref erenced researches. The results showed that the water resources vulnerability value of the Haihe river basin is 59. 7 under the current situation, which indicated that the Haihe river basin is moderate vulnerable. With the future climate changes and human regulation and control of water resources in the Haihe river, the predicted water resources vulnerability value could be 58. 64 and 58. 63 for year 2020 and 2030, respectively, which implied that the regulation and control measures can improve the water re sources conditions of the Haihe river basin. Thus, this method is beneficial for assessing the vulnerability of water resources un der historical and predicted situations.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期55-59,共5页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(2008332012)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金资助项目(50721006)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2006CB403404)
GEF海河KM流域级应用系统开发资助项目(Hw7-17)
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07209-009-4)
关键词
水资源
脆弱性评价
指标体系
层次分析法
海河流域
情景预测
water resources
vulnerability evaluation
indicator system
Analytic Hierarchy Process
the Haihe river basin
scenesanalysis
