摘要
负荷预测是电力系统中的一个重要环节,是电力系统安全、经济、稳定运行的重要保障。针对我国大型城市中心城区负荷易受天气等突变因素影响而出现负荷曲线突变,导致短期负荷预测准确率降低的问题,以及城区负荷具有较明显的时间周期性特点,提出了通过考虑逐时、划分特定区域气象信息建立负荷预测模型,利用数据挖掘技术寻找相似日的方法,为提高短期负荷预测准确率提供一种思路。
Load forecasting is a key link in power system, and also an important guarantee for the safe, economic and stable operation of power systems. According to the fact that the central downtown area＇s power load of large cities is prone to be affected by such an abrupt factor as weather condition which often results in load curve mutation and reduces the forecasting accuracy of the short-term load, and the characteristics that the downtown area＇s load has an obvious time cycle, this paper proposes to establish a load forecasting model by considering different time and divisions of specific regional meteorological information, and seek similar days by using the data searching technique, which may offer a reference for improvin~ the accuracy of short-term load forecast.
出处
《能源技术经济》
2011年第12期45-50,共6页
Electric Power Technologic Economics
