摘要
干旱是气象灾害中最频发的一种,对国民经济和生态环境会产生重大影响.气象干旱是干旱的基础类型,对其适时预测分析有助于当地的灾害预防.根据徐州1960～2005年的降水资料,运用灰色系统理论,构建了不同响应时间(年和4季)的徐州地区气象干旱灰色预测模型GM(1,1).将模型进行统计检验并预测2006～2020年徐州气象干旱可能发生的年份,结合2006～2010年徐州降水量及无降水日记录对预报结果验证.结果表明,该理论模型的预测结果合理可信,2010～2020年间徐州地区干旱可能发生的年份为2015,2017,2020年,此结果可为徐州农业灌溉决策服务和管理提供一定参考.
Drought is one of the most frequent meteorological disasters which has important impact on the national economy and ecological environment.Meteorological drought is the basic type.The drought forecast analysis may help local administration for disaster prevention.According to Xuzhou precipitation data from 1960 to 2005,using the gray theory,this paper constructs the Xuzhou drought gray prediction model GM（1,1） for different response periods（yearly and quarterly）.Then the model statistical tests are made and the drought occurrence periods between 2006 and 2020 are given.Combining with the records on precipitation and continuous days without effective rainfall in Xuzhou（2006~2010）,the prediction model is tested and verified.It shows that the prediction results are reasonable and credible and the drought could happen for years：2015,2017 and 2020 between 2010 and 2020 in Xuzhou which may provide a good reference for local agricultural irrigation service and management.
出处
《徐州师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2011年第4期75-78,共4页
Journal of Xuzhou Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
江苏省青年气象科研基金资助项目(Q201112)
徐州师范大学自然科学基金资助项目(10XLB09)
关键词
干旱预测
灰色预测模型
徐州
drought prediction
gray theory prediction model
Xuzhou
