摘要
根据能源价格的构成,建立了基于合理投资回报率的能源比价模型。并根据能源之间的投入产出关系、可替代关系,分析了不同关系下的合理能源比价关系。根据中国的实际情况,基于投入产出法,以煤炭—电力的比价关系分析为例,分析了煤—电产业链上各环节的成本,对煤炭与电力的合理比价关系进行了分析,并对影响比价关系的因素进行了敏感性分析,得出中国平均销售电价与煤价的比价在8∶1至10∶1之间为宜;同时,基于可替代关系,对天然气与可替代能源(原油、煤炭、电力)的合理比价关系进行了分析。并通过分析验证了所用方法的合理性。
In accordance with the energy price composition,this paper establishes an energy price ratio model based on the reasonable investment return,then analyzes reasonable energy price ratios under various relations,namely the input-output relation and alternative relation.Regarding the actual situation in China,and taking the coal-electricity price ratio as example,the input-output analysis is made about the cost of each section of coal-electricity industry chain and the reasonable price ratio of coal to electricity,as well as the sensitivity analysis about the factors influencing price ratio.The analysis results show that the reasonable price ratio of Chinese average selling electricity price to coal price is between 8∶1 and 10∶1.Meanwhile,based on the alternative relation,the reasonable price ratio of gas to alternative energies（crude oil,coal,or electricity） is also analyzed.Finally,the rationality of the applied methods has been analytically verified.
出处
《华东电力》
北大核心
2012年第2期198-202,共5页
East China Electric Power
基金
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9122022)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(10MR44)~~
关键词
煤炭
电力
比价关系
投入产出
可替代关系
coal
electric power
price ratio
input-output
alternative relation
