摘要
都江堰市在汶川地震中人员伤亡严重,文中主要研究了该市所辖地区人员伤亡的时空分布特征及影响人员伤亡数的各种因素,希望对城市防震减灾具有参考意义。根据都江堰地区各乡镇的烈度及人员伤亡数据,分析了地震烈度及人口密度对人员死亡率的影响,并给出了死亡率与烈度及人口密度的经验关系式,结果表明死亡率与烈度具有较明显的正相关性。研究了死亡率随断层距的变化规律,分析表明死亡率与断层距的相关性比与烈度的相关性更明显。采用断层距估计人口死亡率在一定程度上减小了烈度评定中人为等因素带来的不确定性,因而更具客观性。定量分析了报道死亡人数随时间的变化规律,定性讨论了救援效率与报道死亡人数的关系,报道死亡人数占总死亡人数的比例与救援效率成正比。总结了造成人员伤亡的几种因素,认为房屋破坏和倒塌是造成人员伤亡的主要原因,而且不同结构类型房屋破坏造成的人员伤亡率相差甚大,这是在人员伤亡评估中需要注意的问题。
Dujiangyan City suffered heavy casualties in Wenchuan earthquake.This paper studies the spatiotemporal distribution characters and factors impacting casualties of this city to provide some reference for urban earthquake disaster mitigation.Based on the earthquake intensity and casualty data of each town,the effects of earthquake intensity and population density on death rate are analyzed,and the empirical expressions are given.The result shows that there is an obvious positive correlation between mortality rate and earthquake intensity.The change of death rate with fault distance is studied,and it＇s shown that the correlation between death rate and fault distance is higher than the correlation between death rate and earthquake intensity.To some extent,estimation of death rate based on fault distance reduces the human caused uncertainty in intensity evaluation,which is thus more objective.The changes of the number of reported deaths with time are quantitatively analyzed,and the effects of rescue efficiency on the reported deaths are qualitatively discussed.The ratio of reported deaths to total deaths is proportional to rescue efficiency.By summarizing several factors causing casualties,it is shown that destruction and collapse of building structures are the main reason of casualties,and the death rate caused by building damage depends on the building type.Attention should be paid to this issue when estimating the casualty rate.
出处
《地震工程与工程振动》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期182-188,共7页
Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Dynamics
基金
地震行业基金项目(200808061)
地震行业基金项目(200908011)
地震行业基金项目(200808009)
国家科技支撑项目(2008BAK50B07-08)
关键词
人员伤亡
地震烈度
断层距
死亡原因
报道死亡人数
casualties
earthquake intensity
fault distance
causes of death
reported casualties
