摘要
在对预案进行评估分析和执行过程中常会涉及不确定性问题,传统的预案编制工具关键路径法(Critical Path Method,CPM)不具备处理不确定性问题的能力。本文推荐的贝叶斯网络法(Bayesian Networks)因其处理分析不确定性问题的能力已经被广泛应用于一系列的决策支持应用,但对预案评估分析的应用是新颖的。本文介绍了用贝叶斯网络法分析传统关键路径法编制的预案。
In the process of contingency plan analysis and execution, we meet uncertainty problem frequently. The traditional critical path method （CPM） can not deal with uncertainty problem. Bayesian networks which has capability to dispose uncertainty problem is applied to support decisionmaking widely. It is novel to use bayesian networks in contingency plan analysis. In this paper, a contingency plan is presented, which utilizes bayesian networks in CPM.
出处
《价值工程》
2012年第8期141-142,共2页
Value Engineering
关键词
预案分析
不确定性问题
贝叶斯网络
contingency plan analysis
uncertainty problem
Bayesian Networks
