摘要
白洋淀是华北平原最大的淡水湖泊。近年来,入淀水量和降水量持续减少导致淀水位持续下降。尽管国家实施了多次的生态补水调度,但由于缺乏长效补水机制,白洋淀生态环境恶化趋势仍没有得到有效控制。南水北调中线一期工程的建设,使利用丹江口水库向白洋淀补充生态环境用水成为可能。本文通过研究丹江口水库不同运行调度方案,探讨了利用水文和气象预测、预报信息来指导水库生态调度的可行性。在分析生态预报调度方式内涵的基础上,结合丹江口水库相机补充白洋淀生态用水实例来说明该方法的实用性和可行性。研究表明,基于预报信息的生态优化调度方案,可使白洋淀多年平均补水量增加48%以上。
Baiyang Lake is the greatest freshwater lake in the North China Plain.The water level of the lake has been declining these years due to water inflow and precipitation decrease.Although ecological water supply measures from the upper stream reservoirs and the Yellow River had been taken,the trend of eco-environmental deterioration of Baiyang Lake can not be controlled.Therefore,the long effect mechanism of ecological water supply to Baiyang Lake need to be established and the construction of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project seem to provide a perfect opportunity.The South-to-North Water Diversion Project has been constructed since 2003.The principal parts of the project have been accomplished and the project will transfer water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to northern China in 2014.The primary target of the project is to divert water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to northern China for urban domestic use and in dustrial use,and agricultural water supply and ecological water supply could be considered if there are enough quantities of water.At present,the auxiliary projects of South-to-North Water Diversion Project are under planning and constructing and the implementation scheduling of the auxiliary projects far falls behind that of the principal parts of the project.Therefore,if there is abundant water in Danjiangkou Reservoir,it is possible that diverting the abundant water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to eco-environmental deterioration area in northern China through the main canal of the project.But how much water would be available and how to divert as much as water to northern China for ecological use are still tough problems.This paper discussed the possibility and the feasibility of utilizing hydrological forecast information and meteorological forecast information in ecological reservoir operation.Based on analyzing the implication and the mechanism of reservoir operation with hydro-meteorological information,the advantages of applying this pattern to supply water to Baiyang Lake from Danjiangkou Reservoir by the project were demonstrated.Then a case study about diverting water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to Baiyang Lake for ecological use was made.Based on giving the boundary conditions of ecological operation model,4 operation schemes which utilize 4 kinds of hydrological forecast information regarding forecast periods were set.One of schemes was a traditional operation model and the other three ones were optimization models.The successive linear programming method was applied to solve the optimization model.The results from case study showed that optimization schemes which apply hydrological forecast information divert more quantities of water from Danjiangkou Reservoir to the Baiyang Lake for ecological use than the traditional operation model according to routine operation chart.Compared with the traditional operation scheme,the quantities of water increase by nearly 48%,59%and 63%for the three optimization schemes with two-month forecast period,one-year forecast period and long-term forecast period respectively.Nowadays,the forecast accuracy and level were not high enough to guide reservoir operation in practice.This paper suggests that annual ecological operation plan would be made according to the optimization scheme utilizing one-year period forecast information,and two-month period forecast information would be used to guide reservoir real-time scheduling.To summarize,all of these methods are in order to decrease the surplus water of Danjiangkou Reservoir and improve the use efficiency of water resources.
出处
《湿地科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期32-39,共8页
Wetland Science
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAB04A07
2008BAB29B08)资助
关键词
丹江口水库
南水北调工程
白洋淀
生态环境
预报调度
Danjiangkou Reservoir
South-to-North Water Diversion Project
Baiyang Lake
ecological environment
forecast operation
