摘要
以文山州可预见期内水资源可利用量和可开发量为上限,以经济效益、社会效益和粮食安全最大化为目标,水资源利用量约束为准则,建立基于多目标水资源优化配置及承载能力计算模型。结果表明:①在可预见期水资源可利用量约束下,麻栗坡县和富宁县水资源承载能力最大,临界可承载年分别为2075年和2040年;砚山县和文山县水资源承载能力最小,临界可承载年分别为2015年和2025年。②在水资源可开发利用量约束下,麻栗坡县、富宁县和西畴县水资源承载能力最大,临界可承载年分别为2160年、2063年和2061年;砚山县和文山县水资源承载能力最小,临界可承载年分别为2024年和2040年。③在现有用水技术、生活和生产水平下,水资源优化配置与承载能力优化计算结果基本符合区域经济社会发展的趋势和规模。
A multi-objective model for calculating the optimal water resources allocation and carrying capacity is established on the basis of the water availability and water resources utilization limit in the foreseeable period in Wenshan autonomous prefecture. The model aims to maximize the economic and social benefit and food security arid to restrain the water use. SPSS software is adopted for curve fitting and significance test, and the genetic algorithm toolbox of MATLAB2010a software is used for optimization calculation. The results show that, first of all, constrained by water availability in the foreseeable period, Funing County and Malipo County have the largest water resources carrying capacity with the critical value to be in 2075 and 2040; while Yanshan County and Wenshan County have the smallest carrying capacity with the critical value in 2015 and 2025. Secondly, constrained by water resources utilization limit, Malipo County, Funing County and Xichou County have the largest carrying capacity with the critical value respectively in 2160, 2063 and 2061 ; whereas Yanshan County and Wenshan County have the smallest carrying capacity with the critical value in 2024 and 2040. Finally, judged from the current water technology and life standard, the optimal allocation and the carrying capacity calculated by the model are consistent with the trend and scale of regional economic and social development.
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期11-15,29,共6页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
关键词
优化配置
承载能力计算
水资源
遗传算法
optimal allocation
carrying capacity calculation
water resources
genetic algorithm
