摘要
利用灰色理论GM(1,1)模型分析现代奥运会田径项目的发展并作出预测。结果显示,径赛项目长距离发展快于短距离,其中男子马拉松、50 km竞走,女子10 000 m发展最快。田赛项目投掷项目发展优于跳跃项目,男子铁饼、链球、撑杆跳高、全能、标枪;女子标枪、跳高、全能、铅球呈发展态势,从总体来看,男子田径项目比女子发展好。在此基础上,给出了未来几届奥运会最好成绩95%置信区间。
By utilizing model GM（1,1） in the grey theory, the author analyzed the development of modem Olympic track and field events, made a prediction, and revealed the following findings： in track events, long distance events were developed faster than short distance events; men＇s marathon and 50km walking race as well as women＇s 10,000m run were developed the fastest; in field events, throwing events were developed better than jumping events; men＇s discus throw, weight throw, pole vault, decathlon and javelin as well as women＇s javelin, high jump, heptathlon and shot put showed a trend of developing; in general, men＇s track and field events were developed better than women＇s track and field events. Based on these findings, the author gave out a confidence interval of 95% for best performances in future Olympic Games.
出处
《体育学刊》
CAS
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期102-107,共6页
Journal of Physical Education
