摘要
随着经济全球化和中日贸易的不断发展,中国目前的碳排放量较十年前增长了两倍多,然而日本的碳排放量基本处于稳定状态,中日两国是否由于贸易产生了碳排放转移现象逐渐受到国际社会的关注。本文利用投入产出法分别分析了1995年、2000年和2005年中国和日本由于贸易引起的相应部门产生的碳排放转移量;利用LMDI法从规模效应、结构效应和强度效应这三个角度分析了其在一定时期内对中国和日本碳排放转移变化量的影响程度。结果表明:这三年中国由于出口到日本引起中国碳排放总量的增加值要大于日本碳排放总量的增加值,中日贸易存在着碳排放转移现象。规模效应对转移至中国和日本的碳排放量在三年的变化一直起正向作用,结构效应和技术效应对中国碳排放转移变化值都由负向作用变为正向作用,对日本则反之。最后,本文结合实证分析结果提出了相应的政策建议。
With the development of economic globalization and China-Japan trade,current carbon emissions amount of China have doubled compared to ten years ago,while the carbon emissions of Japan is basically in a stable state.Whether the bilateral trade has an effect on carbon emissions shift draws much attention by the international community.In this study,the OECD offered an input-output table.UN Comtrade provided the department classification amount of merchandise trade between China and Japan.Chinese National Bureau of Statistics offered energy statistical yearbook.Japanese Electrical Engineer Society（IEEJ）provided energy balance sheet.By using the input-output analysis method,this study analyzed the Chinese and Japanese corresponding carbon emissions transferred amount caused by China-Japan trade in 1995,2000,and 2005.The method of LMDI was used to analyze the effects of scale,composition,and technique on Chinese and Japanese carbon emissions transfer in a certain period.Results show that China’s added value of the total amount of carbon emissions caused by trade is more than Japan’s in the three years.This is because there exists carbon emissions transfer from Japan to China.Scale effect always has a positive influence on the transferred amount of Chinese and Japanese carbon emissions in the three years.The effect of composition and technique on the transferred carbon emissions of China was from a positive influence to a negative one as opposed to Japan.Finally,combining the empirical analysis results,several policies and suggestions were given as follows.First,when enjoying China ’s supply of cheap goods,Japan and other developed countries should be responsible for the embodied carbon attached to the goods,and seek to provide practical and effective energy saving and technical assistance of emissions reduction to help China and other developing countries reduce carbon emissions in the process of economic growth.Second,China should change the mode of economic growth,and actively expand domestic demand,and reduce the reliance of GDP on export trade gradually,so as to reduce the increasing carbon emissions from the scale effect.At last,China should continue adjusting export trade structure,encourage energy conservation and emission reduction actively,and export high value-added and high-tech green products. Governments are responsible for organizing research institutes to conduct oppose research associated with major energy conservation and emissions reduction and for introducing advanced technology.All these measures are expected to reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon emissions rate.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期301-308,共8页
Resources Science
关键词
中日贸易
碳排放转移
投入产出法
LMDI方法
China-Japan trade
Carbon emissions transfer
Input and output method
LMDI method
