摘要
国民经济系统中的各产业对石油都有直接或间接的消耗。针对我国通过"中国制造"而被动地间接出口石油的现象,基于投入产出模型的基本原理,构建了我国石油被动净出口量的定量计算模型;模型将产业间的经济关联和石油消耗进行了联接,并考虑了国内外石油利用效率的差异。研究结果显示:通过"中国制造"的石油净出口量占我国石油总消费比例大约为27%,相当于我国从国际市场上所买原油中的约56%在得到政府财政补贴后又通过廉价的"中国制造"被"出口",如果扣除该因素,调整后的我国石油对外依存度约为21%;影响我国通过被动净出口石油规模最大的产业部门主要有通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业、交通运输及仓储业、纺织业、电气机械及器材制造业、金属制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业等;对造成我国大量石油被动净出口现象的原因进行了分析,并在改善经济结构、调整对外贸易结构、提高石油利用效率、适当放开成品油出口、引导国内外媒体宣传等方面提出了相关建议。
China’s domestic oil production has already entered a plateau stage.The gap between oil consumption and production has been increasing rapidly.As the world’s second largest oil importer,China has been one of the important factors affecting the global oil market,and this impact is expected to further increase in the future because China is the most populous and economically flourishing developing country in the world.In recent years,China has obtained tremendous international trade surplus through exporting a large number of＂Made in China＂ products even during the global economic crisis.Each＂Made in China＂product contains oil directly or indirectly,as each sector in the national economy is connected with the petroleum industry.China’s net oil exports through＂Made in China＂products have a close positive relationship with China’s international trade surplus.After studying the phenomenon of indirect oil exports through＂Made in China＂products,a quantitative mathematical model which connects sectors’economic linkage with oil consumption was established based on the basic principles of the Input-Output model.The oil consumption efficiency difference between China and other countries in the world is also considered.Then this model was applied to calculate China＇s passive net oil exports.Results show that the passive net oil exports through＂Made in China＂products account for about 27%of total oil consumption in China,which means that about 56%of China’s crude oil bought from the international market are exported through low-price＂Made in China＂ products after receiving government subsidies.If this factor is considered,China’s adjusted degree of dependence on foreign oil is about 21%.Manufacture of communication equipment,computers and other electronic equipment,transportation,manufacture of textile,manufacture of electrical machinery and equipment,manufacture of metal products,metals smelting and rolling processing are main sectors to export net oil through＂Made in China＂products.Reasons of causing a large amount of China＇s passive net oil exports through＂Made in China＂products were examined,i.e., ＂Made in China＂products have characteristics of＂comparative advantage trap＂,the proportion of processing trade in total foreign trade is high,and the oil consumption efficiency in China is still relatively low.Finally,some recommendations were given for address these issues,such as improving economic structure and foreign trade structure,increasing oil consumption efficiency, introducing more flexible policies on refined oil product exports,and guiding the media report from home and abroad.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期295-300,共6页
Resources Science
基金
中国石油大学(北京)引进人才科研启动基金(编号:BJ-2011-03)
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:"中国与全球油气资源重点区域合作研究"(项目批准号:09JZD0038)
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71073173)
关键词
经济结构
中国制造
原油净出口
对外依存度
投入产出模型
Economic structure
＂Made in China＂products
Net oil exports
Degree of depen- dence on foreign oil
Input-Output model
