摘要
The purpose of this paper is to introduce an innovative methodology in shipping investment evaluation based on simulation of a project cash flow. It concerns a complementary approach to current practices and its aim is to provide more information mainly to ship-owners that consider the feasibility of deploying Ro-Ro Passenger ferries. The paper examines a typical semi-conventional RoPax ferry operating in the Aegean Sea. It addresses important economic, operational and procedural issues concerning risk evaluation. The current status is that risk is a notion still strange to main stakeholders. The Greek practice in performing a feasibility study for a project draws on investor＇s experience and feeling aided by a preliminary economic study. The main thesis of this paper is that there are alternative techniques to evaluate investment risk and measure profitability of a project. A Monte Carlo simulation in collaboration with a typical Ro-Ro cash-flow model is implemented to reveal the extent of risk and provide a useful tool for the assessment of future investments in Greek Short Sea Shipping.
