摘要
将1991-2009年北京市知识密集型服务业增加值作为原始数据序列,对部分统计信息修正后,应用单因子系统云灰色模型拟合时序数据的总体趋势;然后将所得相对误差作为随机波动过程,用马尔柯夫链原理对其状态进行预测;最后综合运用Markov SCGM(1,1)_C模型,对未来3年北京市知识密集型服务业增加值进行了预测,结果表明具有良好的预测精度.
Regard the added value of Beijing＇s knowledge intensive service industry from 1991 to 2009 as original data series, after adjusting some data with information distortion, applying a single gene system cloud grey SCGM（I,I）c model to imitate the entire tendency; its error index is stochastic fluctuate, then forecasting the error state by Markov theory; at last predicting the coming 3 year＇s added value through a combined Markov SCGM（I,I）c model, the result shows that the model has good forecast accuracy.
出处
《系统工程理论与实践》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期292-298,共7页
Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金
"十一五"国家科技支撑重点项目(2006BAJ07B09
2006BAJ07B08)
北京市中青年骨干人才培养计划项目(THR201108307)
北京物资学院青年科研基金项目
