摘要
目的 介绍分析暴露、时间和效应之间相互关系的模型在前瞻性队列研究中的应用。方法 应用Poisson相乘模型和致癌多阶段理论分析了一个橡胶工人队列中亚硝胺暴露及与其有关的时间变量的肺癌危险度。结果 肺癌危险度随亚硝胺暴露年数增加而稳定升高,从暴露开始后经过一个潜隐期(大约20～30年),肺癌危险度达到最高峰,然后迅速下降。结论 本资料中亚硝胺暴露对肺癌危险度所显示的结果符合晚期阶段致癌原的特性。
Objective To introduce modelling the relationship among dose,time of exposure and risk in the prospective cohort study. Methods Poisson multiplicative relative risk model and multistage theory of carcinogenesis were used to analyze the exposure to nitrosoamine and relevant temporal variables on the risk of lung cancer in a cohort of rubber workers. Results Risk of lung cancer increased steadily with duration of exposure to nitrosoamine, which reached the peak after a latency, about 20 to 30 years after initiation of exposure, and then lowered rapidly.Conclusion The pattern of exposure to nitrosoamine shown in the rubber workers conformed with the features of a late-stage carcinogen for lung cancer.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第1期5-7,共3页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
关键词
队列研究
时间-效应模型
亚硝胺暴露
肺癌
Cohort study Modelling the relationship between dose and duration of exposure Multistage theory of carcinogenesis
