摘要
[目的]研究福建北部地区冬季最低气温的短期预报方法。[方法]通过对1969～2008年闽北地区冬季极端最低气温、平均最低气温变化趋势及分布特征的分析,找出在冬季影响低温天气的相关气象因子,并结合闽北地区的气候特点,总结出相关气象要素对冬季最低气温的影响和最低气温的预报方法。[结果]闽北北部的光泽和浦城冬季最低气温最低,邵武、武夷山、建阳、松溪、政和次之,建瓯、顺昌、延平又更高,以延平为最高。最低气温出现主要取决于下午到夜间的降温程度,降温程度又因天空状况、冷空气强度而异。气温的下降类型有平流降温型、辐射降温型、平流—辐射降温型、既无平流也无辐射降温型,不同天空状况下气温有不同降幅特征。在做最低气温预报时应在天气分型的基础上进行,同时把握好冷空气的移动路径和速度将是成功预报最低气温的关键。[结论]该研究为提高冬季最低气温的预报准确率提供理论依据。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the short-time forecast method of minimum temperature in winter in the north area of Fujian.[Method] By analyzing the variation trends and distribution characteristics of extremely and average minimum temperatures in the north of Fujian in winter during 1969-2008,the relative meteorological factors which affected the low temperature weather in winter were found.The influences of relative meteorological factors on the minimum temperature in winter and the forecast method of minimum temperature were summarized by combining with the climate characteristics in the north of Fujian.[Result] The minimum temperature in Guangze and Pucheng in the north of northern Fujian was the lowest.The second one was in Shaowu,Wuyishan,Jianyang,Songxi and Zhenghe.The minimum temperature in Jian＇ou and Shunchang was higher and was the highest in Yanping.The minimum temperature depended mainly on the temperature reduction degree from the afternoon to the night.The temperature reduction degree varied with the sky condition and cold air intensity.The temperature reduction included the advection,radiation,advection-radiation and non-advection-radiation types.The different temperature reduction characteristics were in the different sky conditions.The forecast of minimum temperature should carry out based on the weather typing.Meanwhile,the key of successful minimum temperature forecast was grasping the shift pathway and speed of cold air.[Conclusion] The research provided the theory basis for improving the forecast accuracy of minimum temperature in winter.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第22期13627-13629,共3页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
冬季
最低气温
短期预报
福建北部
Winter
Minimum temperature
Short-term forecast
Northern of Fujian
