摘要
本文介绍了现有的描述风电场风速频率分布的模型,如对数正态分布模型、威布尔分布模型、AR-GARCH模型等数学模型,并分析了各种模型的特点及其局限性。通过对风电场实际风速频率分布特点的分析,认为AR-GARCH模型能较准确的描述实际情形下的风能资源分布,该模型能充分反映风速随时间变化的随机性和波动性,能有效解决其它常用数学模型在低风速、零风速以及风速频率分布曲线存在多峰值时的拟合误差过大的问题,并具有较强的通用性。本文结合三个典型工程实例的计算分析,验证了AR-GARCH模型的有效性和正确性。
This paper discusses the existing models of wind speed frequency distribution such as log-normal distribution model,Weibull distribution model and AR-GARCH model,focusing on their features and limitations.An analysis of actual speed frequency distribution of a wind farm suggests that AR-GARCH model is the best in describing the actual wind.This model can fully reflect the randomness and wave character of wind speed that varies with time,and with a universality of application it effectively reduces the large fitting errors of the other models in low-speed and zero-speed zones,particularly for those distribution curves with multiple peaks.Application of the model to three typical engineering projects verified its prediction ability and accuracy.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期204-209,共6页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
