摘要
现行洪水频率分析采用单变量分布曲线,应用Copula函数构造洪水联合分布时又未考虑历史洪水资料.本文将一维非连续序列的极大似然法扩展应用到二维联合分布的参数估计,建立了基于Copula函数的非连续序列洪水频率分析模型,并以长江三峡水库设计洪水为例,验证该模型的可行性和合理性.结果表明,所建模型合理可行,为多变量非连续序列设计洪水分析计算提供了一种新的方法.
The current flood frequency analysis based on univariate distribution function and Copula-based multivariate model didn＇t account for historical information and paleo-flood.A Copula-based discontinuous flood frequency analysis model was proposed with parameter estimated by two-dimensional maximum likelihood method.The design flood of the Three Gorges reservoir was selected as case study.The results show that the proposed model is reasonable and feasible,which provides a new approach for multivariate discontinuous flood frequency analysis.
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第6期681-684,共4页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51079100)
国家科技支撑计划(编号:2009BAC56B01)
关键词
历史资料
设计洪水
COPULA函数
联合分布
极大似然法
historical information
design flood
Copula function
joint distribution
maximum likelihood method
