摘要
本文应用门限面板数据模型,采用1997年-2008年我国31个省、市、自治区的数据对我国经济增长与国内旅游业发展之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明国内旅游发展与经济增长之间存在门限效应,即国内旅游收入占GDP的百分比低于14.31%时,国内旅游业的发展对地区经济增长的促进作用低于该比例,高于14.31%时国内旅游业的发展对地区经济增长有显著的促进作用。同时,研究结果表明处于国内旅游收入占GDP的百分比低于14.31%的状态下的地区其经济增长具有条件收敛性,即此种状态下国内旅游的发展有助于缩小区域差异;而国内旅游收入占GDP的百分比高于14.31%的状态下地区经济增长不具有条件收敛性。
The paper researched the relationship between domestic tourism development and economic growth applying threshold panel data model with panel data from 1997 to 2008 of 31 provinces of China. The result shows there is threshold effect between domestic tourism development and economic growth of China. Though wnehever the ratio of domestic tourism receipts to GDP is lower or higher than 14.31%, there are significant relation between domestic tourism and economic growth; when the ratio is higher than 14.31%, the improvement effect of development of domestic tourism to the economy is more significant. Also, the result shows there is conditional convergence when the ratio is lower than 14.31%, which means development of domestic tourism can accelerate the defference of the regional economy development; but when the ratio is higher than 14.31%, there is no conditional convergence.
出处
《现代物业（中旬刊）》
2012年第1期4-9,共6页
Modern Property Management
关键词
国内旅游
经济增长
面板数据
门限回归
Domestic Tourism
Economic Growth
Panel Data
Threshold regression
