摘要
为测定生育政策调整对陕西省人口年龄结构的影响,本文选择四种方案进行模拟分析。结果表明:2010—2080年间陕西省人口年龄结构将面临着劳动人口供给量大幅下降和老年抚养比快速增长两大难题;生育政策的调节方案均能在一定程度上缓解上述两大问题的问题;其中从现在起实行"父母中一方是独生子女的家庭可生育两个孩子"的调节效果最佳。
In order to determine the influence of birth policy adjustment on population age structure of Shaanxi province,this pa- per choose four schemes to simulate and analyze. The result show that：the population age structure of Shaanxi province will face two problems from 2010 to 2080. The working population supply will decline sharply and the old dependency rate will grow up quickly,the birth policy adjustment schemes could relieve the two big problems in the above,the best scheme to adjust the birth policy is to implement the policy＂one of the parents who come from the only child family could have two children＂ from now on.
出处
《西北人口》
CSSCI
2012年第1期70-74,共5页
Northwest Population Journal
基金
2010年陕西省社会科学基金项目(10H047)
2010年陕西省社会科学基金项目(10E070)
2011年陕西省教育厅专项科学研究项目(11JK0141)资助
关键词
生育政策
人口年龄结构
独生子女
二孩政策
老龄化
Birth policy
Population age structure
Single child
the two children policy
Aging problem
