摘要
依据东江流域21个气象站1959—2009年逐年平均降雨、蒸发、日照、湿度及气温等气象要素序列,选择常用的线性倾向估计及非参数M-K等趋势分析方法,分析了东江流域近50年来气温、降水、蒸发、日照及湿度等气象要素的变化趋势。选择降雨和蒸发两个气候要素两两组合,构成未来气候变动的36种假想情景,运用改进的SCS月模型模拟计算了顺天流域年径流量的变化幅度。结果表明:在过去的50年间,流域降雨量呈不显著增长,而气温则为显著上升,其他气候要素如蒸发、日照及湿度等均呈不同程度减少趋势;关联度分析表明降雨在所有气象要素中与径流的关联度为最大,说明了在东江流域降雨是径流量变化的主要驱动因子;未来流域降雨增加,蒸发减少的气候情景模式下,径流量会有所增加,反之亦然;由降雨变化引起的流域月径流量的增幅较由蒸发变化引起的相应流量的增幅变化大。
The change trends of the climate elements including rainfall, evaporation, sunshine, humidity and temperature, etc., were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend analysis statistic method and the meteorological data about 50 years （1959-2009）. Shuntian basin is selected as case study, and the runoff variation in this area was calculated by using the modified SCS monthly model under the 36 kinds of future climate change scenarios, which were combined by two meteorological elements, rainfall andevaporation. The results showed that in the past 50 years, compared to the significant increase in temperature, the area ramtall has a insignificant increase, while evaporation, sunshine and moisture expose a reduce tendency in different extents, and relevancy analysis indicate that rainfall which correlation coefficient is biggest among that of all the other climate elements, which is turned out to be the major driver of the change of runoff. The runoff will increase if rainfall increase and evaporation decrease in the future, and the consequence will be opposite when the conversions happen. The growth of the runoff due to rainfall increase is greater than that of growth due to evaporation decrease.
出处
《生态环境学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第12期1783-1787,共5页
Ecology and Environmental Sciences
基金
广东省自然科学基金项目(S2011010001549)
国家自然科学基金项目(50809078
50839005)
广州市珠江科技新星专项
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目资助
