摘要
We look for 8.5% GDP growth in 2012-13 Inflation will likely fall below trend in 2012, and we do not expect rate hikes Current account should fall to around 2% of GDP, suggesting less under-valuation We have revised down our 2012 China real GDP growth forecast to 8.5% from 10%, and our forecast for 2013 to 8.5%. There are two main reasons for our call.Inflationhas remained more
We have revised down our 2012 China real GDP growth forecast to 8.5% from 10%, andour forecast for 2013 to 8.5%. There are two main reasons for our call. Inflationhas remained more elevated and domestic growth momentum has slowed moregradually in 2011 than we forecast. This has delayed the turn in policy - China＇s monetary policy was not loosened in O3-2011, as we ex- pected - and thus also the turn in the economic cycle. ＂l-hat said, momentum has clearly been lost in manufacturing growth, and CPI inflation has now peaked, we believe.
