摘要
从大震前中小地震活动有个增强的过程和大地震常常发生在异常区外围的现象出发，提出用描述地震分布时、空、强基本特点的空间集中度Ｃ、地震危险度Ｄ和地震强度因子Ｍｆ进行交汇预测未来震中位置。应用在华东地区的震例一般预测位置可达１°～１．５°半径，并能较好地避免单值预报的虚报、漏报。
The phenomena show that the activities of moderate and small earthquake usually Indicate a strengthening process prior to large earthquakes and that large earthquakes often occur in the periphery of the anomalous zone. The Intersection area of anomalous zones of the parameters describing the characteristics of the temporal, spatial and intensity distributions of earthquakes (the spatial concentration degree C, the seismic risk degree D and the seismic intensity factor Mf) could be used to predict the epicentral location of the future earthquake. The application of the method to the earthquake prediction in East Chi- na region has shown that the accuracy of the estimated epicentral location might reach 1°- 1. 5° (radius), and false alarms and missed prediction of earthquakes resulted from using only single parameter can be avoided efficiently.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
2000年第1期32-38,共7页
Earthquake
基金
中国地震局"九五"科研攻关项目!95-04
关键词
地震预报
中强地震前兆
中期异常
地震集中度
Seismic concentration degree C
Seismic risk degree D
seismic intensity factor Mf
Synthetic anomalous area
Temporal and spatial scanning
