摘要
在总结改革开放以来广东经济增长与能源消耗状况的基础上,运用1985-2009年广东省能源消耗总量和地区生产总值等数据进行协整分析,并构建VEC模型来分析长短期经济增长对能源消耗的影响.在短期内,经济增长每增加1%,能源消耗增加0.65%,无论是短期还是长期,均存在从经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系,符合反向修复机制.当能源消耗与经济增长偏离长期均衡时,将会以-0.24的调整力度将经济增长和能源消耗调整至均衡状态.文章最后针对实证研究结论提出政策建议.
After an analysis of economic growth and energy consumption in Guangdong since the implementation of the policy of opening up to the outside world, the paper uses indices of total energy consumption and GDP for cointegration analysis, and develops a VEC model to analyze how economic growth affects energy consumption in the short and long run. In the short run, economic growth by 1% leads to an increase in energy consumption by 0.65%.Whether in the short or long run, there is unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption, which complies with reverse repairing mechanisms. When energy consumption and economic growth deviate from the long-term equilibrium, the -0.24 structural adjustment will force them back to equilibrium. The paper also brings forward some suggestions according to the empirical results.
出处
《深圳职业技术学院学报》
CAS
2012年第1期48-51,共4页
Journal of Shenzhen Polytechnic
关键词
能源消耗
经济增长
协整
VEC模型
energy consumption
economic growth
cointegration
VEC model
