摘要
本文给出了预测地震灾害的一种新途径,即:M→Г→Z(M为震级,Г为烈度当量,Z为地震灾害)。烈度当量为一新概念,在震害预测中,它较之于烈度和震级更为有效。其具体方法是:首先利用一些经验公式将震级M换算成震中烈度I_0;其次再计算一次地震造成的总烈度当量(它包括对某一地震造成的不同烈度区进行烈度当量换算和计算不同烈度区的面积);最后在考虑到地震震级、发震时刻、震前地震预报的程度、受灾面积、受灾区人口与经济密度、固定资产及建筑物设防等因素的前提下,预测地震灾害。
A new path to forecate earthquake hazard has been given in this paper It is
M→Γ→Z
in which M is magnitude, Γ is equivalent earthquake intensity. Z is earthquake hazard.
①Firstly, we can convert M into I_0 by some practical formulas.
②Secondly, we must calculate the total EEl of an earthquake. It contains two parts in which one is to do conversion among different intensity areas and the other is to calculate the area with some an earthquake intensity.
③Finally, it is last importent to forecatc earthquake hazard, Considering the effeetion of earthquake magnitude, earthquake time, the prediction extent before an earthquake taking place, earthquake disaster area, the population density and the economic density in disaster area, fixed capital, earthquake-proof construction and etc.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
1990年第4期8-13,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
关键词
烈度当量
地震灾害
预测
Equivalent Earthquake Intensity, Earthquake Hazard,Forecasting.
