摘要
随着人类开发海洋资源、发展海洋产业的规模化推进,海洋生态系统运行状况愈加恶劣。以我国海洋生态经济系统基本演变规律为出发点,综合生态足迹法、承载力模型和可持续发展度量法,在构建系统发展状态评价指标体系的基础上,对沿海11省市2000年-2009年海洋生态、经济、社会三个子系统发展状态的时空动态关系曲线进行拟合,基于交互胁迫论和非线性回归模型,证实了构成海洋生态经济系统的三个子系统之间存在的交互胁迫关系,并应用耦合模型对三个子系统的时空协调度进行测算,判别出沿海11省市海洋生态经济系统协调发展大多处于"S"型发展机制的拮抗或磨合阶段,且由于海洋生态子系统的恶化,部分省市协调类型为生态脆弱型,可持续发展态势十分严峻。
With large-scale exploitation of marine resources and expansion of the development of marine industries,marine ecosystem health is severely affected.This study was aimed to expound an internal relationship,spatial and temporal evolution rules of China’s marine eco-economic system,and build a mechanism of coordinated development for the marine eco-economic system.In order to realize these goals,the ecological footprint method,measurement capacity and sustainable development model were jointly used to build a state evaluation index system.The Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）,entropy method,and multi-objective decision-making power coefficient method were employed to determine the weights of the evaluation index system.Subsequently,the coercion interactive theory and non-linear regression model were applied to fit dynamic curves of spatial and temporal evolution of three sub-systems,i.e.,ecology,economy,and society,for 11 coastal provinces in China during the period 2000-2009.It was found that logarithmic curve interactions existed in both space and time between the marine economic and marine social subsystems.Inverted＂U＂curve relationships existed between marine ecology and marine economic sub-systems.Double-exponential curve relationships existed between marine ecology and marine social sub-systems.The coupled model was applied to calculate the degree of spatial and temporal coordination of the three sub-systems,resulting in fitting curves and trends in coordination degree development which appears to be able to reflect the reality of the marine eco-economic system in 11 study coastal provinces and cities.The interactive coordination degrees among marine ecological,economic,and social sub-systems were generally in line with an＂S＂ shape.Because of high dependence on marine resources and the environment,some coastal provinces and cities are currently under a deteriorated condition of marine ecological systems.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期173-184,共12页
Resources Science
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金博导类资助课题:"我国海洋生态经济系统非协调发展测度
机理及优化机制研究"(编号:20110132110015)
关键词
海洋生态经济系统
交互胁迫关系
协调度
沿海11省市
Marine eco-economic system； Interactive relationship； Coordination degree； 11 coastal provinces and cities；
