摘要
文章选取2005年5月到2011年6月的月度数据,运用VEC模型对外汇储备对股票市场价格的影响进行了实证分析。结果显示,外汇储备是通过宏观层面的流动性对股市产生影响,外汇储备和货币供应量对股票市场价格的影响均比较小,主要原因是其传导机制比较复杂,且我国对信贷资金流入股市采取十分严厉的限制。相应地,文章提出了加强对流入股市热钱的监管;加强非流通股股东解禁的管理;深化一级市场改革发行制度,积极发展债券、期货等资本市场;完善宏观调控手段以及坚持严格信贷资金流入股市等政策建议。
This paper empirically analyzes the transmission mechanisms of foreign exchange reserves and stock market prices with VEC model, selecting monthly data from May 2005 to December 2010. The result shows that there is a relationship between the foreign exchange reserves and stock market prices, with changes of the money supply serving as the link. But in fact, both foreign exchange reserves and money supply have less influence on stock market prices. The main reasons are the complex transmission mechanism and strict restrictions on the credit money which inflows into the stock market in China. Ac- cordingly, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, such as to strengthen supervision of hot money which inflows into the stock market, to strengthen the management of non-tradable shares lifted, to deepen the reform of the primary market system and the development of capital market, to perfect macro-control means and to keep strict restrictions on the credit money which inflows into the stock market.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2012年第2期89-94,共6页
East China Economic Management
基金
教育部人文社会科学基金项目"巨额外汇储备对中国经济安全的影响及对策研究"(10YJAGJW015)的子项目
江苏省2011年度普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"外汇储备对股票市场价格的影响--基于流动性视角的分析"(CXLX11_0822)
南京师范大学商学院研究生创新人才培养计划项目"巨额外汇储备对资本市场的影响"(10CX_009G)
关键词
外汇储备
股票市场价格
相关性
流动性
foreign exchange reserves
stock market prices
correlation
liquidity
