摘要
利用温州8个气象站点近40年的雾日和霾日统计资料,从时间和空间两方面分析了温州雾、霾日数的气候特征和变化规律。结果表明,1971—2008年期间,温州市区(平原)地区雾日数显著减少,洞头(海岛)地区雾日数缓慢减少,泰顺(高山)地区雾日数呈波动式缓慢增长,21世纪初有明显增多;温州地区霾日数,除泰顺(高山)地区缓慢增长外,总体呈快速增多趋势,增多开始发生在20世纪70年代后期,21世纪初霾日数显著增加,其中永嘉和瑞安增加最快。温州雾日数冬春多,夏秋少;霾日数冬季最多,夏季最少。同时,利用近年来气象部门与环保部门联合开展的空气质量预报产品,如空气污染指数(API),建立雾、霾预报方法。统计2004—2009年间的雾、霾与空气污染指数的相关关系,并兼及晴雨天气条件,总结出包含晴雨、空气污染指数及雾、霾3要素的线性公式,作为预报雾、霾工具。经检验,效果较好,预报未来24h雾、霾准确率达57%～66%。并通过编程实现计算机自动预报。
Based on the fog and haze data from 8 meteorological stations in Wenzhou,the temporal and spatial climatic characteristics and the variation regularities of fog and haze days in recent 40 years are analyzed.The results indicate that from 1971 to 2008, the number of fog days in the urban area of Wenzhou significantly decreased. Fog days in exurban area of Wenzhou decreased slowly.Haze days in urban and exurban areas of Wenzhou increased from 1971 to 2008 as a whole, and such increase occurred mainly after 1979. During the period of 2001 to 2008, the number of haze days was the greatest in Wenzhou, with most fog and haze days in winter and least in summer. From 1971 to 2008, fog days decreased in most regions of Wenzhou, but haze days increased in all regions of Wenzhou, especially haze days increased rapidly in Urban. The relation has been found between fog, haze, precipitation, and API from the data of 2004 to 2009, based on which a forecasting model is established, with the forecasting accuracy up to 57% to 66%. The verification indicates that the relation is useful in fog and haze forecasting, and the computeraided automatic forecasting is applicable.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2011年第6期791-795,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40875025
40875030)
浙江省气象局2009年度推广应用项目共同资助
关键词
雾
霾
气候特征
预报
fog haze climatic characteristic forecasting
