摘要
1998年 ,以扩大投资为重点的扩大内需政策对促进我省经济增长起到积极作用 ,但今年以来扩大投资的政策未能继续取得预期效果 ,投资对经济增长的拉动效应明显减弱 ,经济增长出现了“启而不动”的迹象。为什么过去我们长期惯用并行之有效的扩大投资拉动经济增长的政策没有取得预期效果 ?经济增长的主要驱动因素是投资需求还是消费需求 ?我省下一步扩大内需的政策取向如何 ?文章通过对我省近十几年来经济增长的需求因素贡献率实证分析与国际经验的比较 ,得出结论 :拉动我省经济增长的主导因素是消费需求 ,而不是投资需求 ,单靠投资需求拉动的经济增长是不可能持久的。
In 1998,the policy of expanding domestic demand by increasing investments as the major means played an active role in stimulating the growth of Hebei’s economy.This policy,however,failed to achieve the desired results in 1999.Its effect on stimulating economic growth was dramatically weakened,There was evidence of stagnation in the province’s economic growth.Why did this policy that had been adopted effectively in the previous years fail to achieve the desired results?Which is the major dynamic factor,the demand for investment or the demand for consumption?What orientation should be taken for the policy aiming to stimulate domestic demand in Hebei?Through a positive analysis of contributing rates of demand factors and a comparison with the international experience,this treatise draws a conclusion that the leading factor that stimulates Hebei’s economy should be the consumption demand rather than the investment demand.Economic growth will not be sustainable if simply relying on the stimulation of investment demand.
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
2000年第1期21-21,共1页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
基金
河北省社科规划1999年度资助项目! ( 19990 3 0 0 7)
关键词
扩大内需
需求贡献率
回归模型
启动消费
河北
expansion of domestic demand
contribution rate of demand
regression model to stimulate consumption
