摘要
本文利用1978—2009年的时间序列数据,通过建立向量自回归模型(VAR)对社会保障支出与就业之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。研究表明,社会保障支出与就业之间存在长期协整关系,两者互为因果;脉冲响应分析结果进一步表明,社会保障支出的增加对就业增长有长期显著的促进作用,社会保障支出每增加1%,就业增长0.041%。
By the time-series data of 1978 to 2009,this paper gave an empirical analysis about the dynamic effect of social security spending on employment with VAR model.The research showed：there was a long co-integration relationship between social security spending and employment,and both they are the cause;the pulse response analysis further suggested the results that the increase of social security spending could significantly promote the growth of employment,and social security spending increased by 1%,the employment growed by 0.041%.
出处
《兰州商学院学报》
CSSCI
2011年第6期18-22,39,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou Commercial College
基金
重庆市社会科学规划项目"重庆市新型农村社会养老保险制度实施效果评价及完善路径研究"(2011QNJJ12)阶段性成果
