摘要
为了解福建省城镇化发展、农业现代化与农民收入增长之间的关系,利用福建省1978—2009年的经济数据,在建立VAR模型的基础上,进行格兰杰因果检验,脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析,对其关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,城镇化发展是农业现代化的格兰杰原因,对农业现代化在短期有正向影响,长期影响迅速变大,而城镇化发展不是农民收入增长的格兰杰的原因,但城镇化发展对农民收入增长在短期有正向影响,长期影响更大;农业现代化是农民收入增长的格兰杰原因,而不是城镇化发展的格兰杰原因,但农业现代化对城镇化发展作用逐期增大;农民收入增长既不是城镇化发展的格兰杰原因,也不是农业现代化的格兰杰原因,农民收入增长对农业现代化的作用相对较小,但逐期增大,农民收入增长对城镇化发展作用也逐期增大。
In order to understand the relationship between development of urbanization,agriculture modernization and income growth of peasants in Fujian Province,with the economic data ranging from 1978 to 2009,based on the foundation of vector auto-regression model,applying the Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition,the relationship between development of urbanization,agriculture modernization and income growth of peasants in Fujian Province was studied on empirically.The results showed that the urbanization development was the Granger cause of agricultural modernization,and had positive effect on agricultural modernization in short-term,and greater effect in the long-term.Agricultural modernization was the Granger cause of income growth of peasants,not the Granger cause of the urbanization development,while agricultural modernization had an increasing effect on urbanization.Income growth of peasants was neither the Granger cause of urbanization nor the agricultural modernization,income growth of peasants had little effect relatively,with its effect increasing every period.The effect of income growth of peasants on urbanization also increased every period.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第30期307-312,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
福建省社科联规划项目"福建省水稻保险费率决定及财政补贴机制研究"(2010B2039)
福建农林大学青年教师基金项目"福建省农村公共产品供给制度研究"(08SB01)
关键词
城镇化
农业现代化
农民收入增长
VAR模型
urbanization
agriculture modernization
income growth of peasants
VAR model
