摘要
铁路货运是现代交通运输体系的重要组成部分,对国民经济增长具有巨大推动作用。根据近20年铁路货运量和国内生产总值数据,应用协整分析方法、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验对二者进行实证分析。研究表明:铁路货运量与国民经济总量存在长期的均衡关系;同时二者之间仅存在着单向因果关系,通过增强铁路货运能力,满足货运市场需求可以拉动国民经济的快速发展,为实现经济可持续发展奠定良好基础。
Railway freight transportation is an important part of modern transportation system, and has great effect to the growth of national economy. Empirical analysis is taken by the application of the co-integration analysis method, the error correction model and Granger causality test according to nearly 20 years of railway freight volume data and GDP. Research shows that： there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between railway freight volume and the national economy; there is only one-way causality. It can achieve a good foundation for sustainable economic development by enhancing railway freight transportation ability.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2011年第12期1-4,共4页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
铁道部科技开发项目(2010X003-G)
关键词
铁路货运量
国民经济
协整
Railway Freight Volume
National Economy
Co-integration
