摘要
总结了国内外学者对气候变化对我国农业影响的研究结果,鉴于我国人口增长对粮食需求量的增加,重点研究了气候变化对我国粮食产量的影响。结果表明,在不同区域以及应用不同的研究方法所得到的结果并不相同,这与研究方法、研究假设的场景及研究区域均有一定的关系。同时,农业发展还受到政策因素和科学技术的作用,在未来的模拟研究中如何去掉这两者对农业产量变化的影响,以及考虑到农业生物对气候变化的适应性,模拟研究中模型与参数的使用性与敏感性的问题,将会得到更加准确的结果。
The research results about effects of climate change on Chinese agriculture at home and abroad were summarized especially focused on grain yield because of increasing population's demand on grain.The results showed that the research results are different in various regions with different methods and backgrounds.At the same time,the impact of policy and science and technology on agricultural development were not exhausted.So in the future study,we should pay more attention on how to removal the impact of policy and science and technology on agriculture yield variation.Considering the adaptability of the agriculture biology to climate change,simulating the suitability and sensitization of model and its parameters could get more accurate results.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第33期20844-20848,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
关键词
气候变化
农业
粮食产量
影响研究
Climate change
Agriculture
Food product
Impact study
