摘要
为了解在全球变暖的大背景下广西农业气候资源的变化特征,为政府部门指导农业生产、发展设施农业、合理进行农业气候区划提供决策依据,笔者利用广西71个气象站1961—2010年的逐日气温、降水量和日照时数资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K突变检验等方法分析了广西主要农业气候资源在时间、空间上的变化趋势及其差异。结果表明,广西≥0℃活动积温和≥10℃活动积温呈明显增加趋势,增加突变点均为1997年,20世纪60—80年代是热量资源较贫乏时期,90年代热量有所增加,21世纪初为热量资源最丰富时期;各地热量资源也均呈增加趋势;广西年日照时数表现为"阶梯式"减少,1975年是其减少突变点,20世纪60年代为光照资源最丰富时期,90年代为最贫乏时期;广西降水资源变化趋势不显著,年际间变化较大。
In order to understand the variation features of agricultural climate resources in Guangxi on the background of global warming,and provide decision basis for government departments to guide agricultural production,develop the facilities agriculture and agriculture climate division.The temporal and spatial tendency,differences of agricultural climate resources in Guangxi was analyzed by using linear-trend estimate and Mann-Kendall catastrophe test,based on the daily air temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours of 71 meteorological stations from 196l to 2010 in Guangxi.The results showed that the accumulated temperature ≥0℃ and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ increased greatly and abruptly changed in 1997.There was a poor period of heat before the 1980s,the heat was increasing in the 1990s,and it was quite abundant in the last 10 years.The different places of Guangxi also had an increasing tendency.The annual sunshine hours displayed decrease like step.1975 was the catastrophe point at which the annual sunshine hours began a downward tendency.The illumination resource was the most rich in the 1960s and was the most poor in the 1990s.The results also showed that the variation tendency of precipitation was not significant,and the fluctuation of precipitation inter-annual was intensified.
出处
《中国农学通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第27期168-173,共6页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
广西自然科学基金项目"中国-东盟博览会期间南宁高浓度空气污染的气象成因及应对措施研究"(2010GXNSFA013007)
