摘要
文章首先运用情景分析的方法对江苏省十三个市进行能源消费结构进行分析,构建由经济分析模型、能源需求模型、环境约束模型和多目标决策模型组成的能源结构调整与优化选择系统,然后以江苏省"十一五"规划为参考,考虑到经济发展速度及未来一定时期和环境发生的变化,分析在基准情景状态下江苏省各市的能源消费结构的优化结果,最后在该优化结果前提下预测2020年能源消费结构优化方案。在此基础上,文章认为,实现能源消费结构优化,要实施核心竞争力战略和社会资源整合战略,以信息化带动工业化,构筑江苏省信息化网络框架体系。
A scenario analysis method is applied to this paper in analyzing energy consumption structure in 13 municipalities of Jiangsu Province, aiming at constructing an adjusted and optimized energy selection system, in which, a high combination of economic analysis model, energy demand model, environme.ntal constraints model and multi-objective decision-making model is included. This research, taking the ＂llth five-year＂ plan for reference, with the economic growth and future changes in environment are concerned, analyzes the optimized results under the condition of baseline scenarios in municipalities of Jiangsu Province, based on which, a scheme for structure optimization of energy consumption by year 2020 and suggestions relevant are proposed.
出处
《改革与战略》
北大核心
2011年第11期119-122,共4页
Reformation & Strategy
基金
江苏省软科学研究计划项目(BR2008079)
江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学指导性项目(08SJD630048)
徐州市软科学研究计划项目(XC10B012)
关键词
多目标决策
能源消费
结构优化
预测
multi-objective decision-making
energy consumption
structure optimization
prediction
