摘要
能源发展的急剧变化极大地影响了商业能源构成和各类能源生产的前景。这些变化的长期趋势尚无法预测,但根据市场势头、发展需要和环境影响,能源生产很可能随之变化。1986年能源发展中的两大事件:世界油价突然下跌和苏联切尔诺贝利核电站的爆炸和起火,使大多数专家都感到震惊。在这一年里,原油市场现货价格跌到每桶10美元以下(1981年每桶30美元以上),美国1986年初的原油平均价格跌到每桶15美元,推翻了1980年估计的每桶原油会涨到40美元以上的预言。由于努力节能和放慢经济,发达国家1985年仅消费28.09亿吨石油,比许多专家在几年前的预计几乎少40％。曾被认为是不能征服的卡特尔——石油输出国组织(欧佩克,OPEC)——连续七年失去了销售份额。由于非欧佩克国家扩大了产量,欧佩克在世界石油生产上的比例从1975年的57％下降到1985年的30％。许多第三世界国家被沉重的能源债务弄得身无分文,由于油价下跌,得到了复苏。
In 1986, two major energy incidents startled most experts: a sudden drop in worldwide petroleum prices and the explosion at Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Oil still accounted for 43% of OECD nation's primary energy consumption in 1985. But investing on efficient technology and renewable energy in the past few years, OECD nations successfully reduced their oil consumption up to 19% between 1979 and 1985. USSR's natural gas production expanded some 45% from 1980 to 1985. Developing nations continue to obtain more than 40% of their energy from biomass though their commercial energy consumption is expected to rise greatly in the near future. However, if they adopt conservation measures as they switch to modern forms of energy, they could achieve Western living standards with only a 20% per capita increase in energy consumption. This paper summerizes the present conditions and future trends of energy production and consumption of the world.
出处
《世界环境》
1990年第1期26-29,共4页
World Environment
