摘要
利用线性回归、Mann-Kendall等方法,对商丘站1954～2010年的年、汛期、非汛期降水量资料进行趋势分析、突变检验。结果表明:年、汛期和非汛期降水量线性变化趋势均不显著,年、汛期降水量总体分别以6.74 mm/10 a和12.3 mm/10 a的速度在增加,非汛期降水量以5.57 mm/10 a的速度在减少。从年代上看,年、汛期降水量21世纪以来最多,年降水量20世纪80年代最少,汛期降水量90年代最少,年代平均降水量最多与最少分别相差122.9 mm和119.9 mm,非汛期降水量50年代和70年代均较多,80年代最少,年代平均降水量最多与最少相差32.0 mm。年、汛期和非汛期降水量存在不明显的突变,年、汛期降水量突变的时间基本一致在2003年前后,非汛期降水量在1970年和2004年前后。
By dint of linear regression,Mann-Kendall and other methods,the precipitation trend and mutation on annual precipitation,rainfall in flood season and non-flood season in Shangqiu from 1954 to 2010 were discussed.The result indicated that the trend of annual precipitation and rainfall in flood and non-flood seasons were not significant,annual precipitation increased by 6.74 mm/10 a,rainy season increased by 12.3 mm/10 a,and non-flood season decreased by 5.57 mm/10 a.This century annual and flood seasonal precipitation were the most in 1990s and the least in 1980s at the difference of 122.9 mm and 119.9 mm respectively.Non-flood seasonal precipitation was more in 1950s and 1970s,and less in 1980s,at a difference of 32.0 mm.The mutation of annual,flood and non-flood seasonal precipitation was not obvious.Mutations of annual and flood seasonal precipitation occurred in 2003,while non-flood seasonal precipitation occurred in 1970 and 2004.
出处
《安徽农业科学》
CAS
北大核心
2011年第31期19423-19426,共4页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences
基金
河南省商丘市科技攻关项目(20093034)
关键词
降水量
汛期
非汛期
趋势分析
突变检验
Precipitation
Flood season
Non-flood season
Trend analysis
Mutation analysis
