摘要
依据1960-2010年NOAA Nino3.4区海温数据和渭南市气象及棉花产量统计数据,主要应用Mann-Kendal检验法、小波分析法及其他数理统计方法对陕西省棉花主产区(渭南市)的气候变化、棉花单产量、ENSO的特征及3者之间的关系进行了分析,结果显示:①近50 a来,厄尔尼诺影响年份有20 a、拉尼娜影响年份有17 a;Nino3.4区的海温在1978年左右发生了增温突变且突变后厄尔尼诺现象对气候的影响作用加强。②近50 a来,渭南市的暖干化趋势明显;降水量和气温的震荡主周期为27 a,且在27 a尺度上同步经历了增加—减少—增加的变化过程且均在1978年、1995年前后分别发生突变。③在厄尔尼诺影响年份,气温和棉花单产量呈上升趋势,降水量呈减少趋势,在拉尼娜影响年份则相反。研究成果可为有关部门在对陕西省的棉花产量和品质预测分析时提供一定的参考。
Based on the SST3.4 data,meteorological data and cotton production statistic data in Weinan from 1960 to 2010,using Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis and any others mathematical statistics methods,this paper analyzed the character of climate change and cotton single production of main cotton producing area（Weinan） in ShaanXi.The results were as follows：（1） 20 years have been affected by El Nino and 17 years have been affected by La Nina in recent 50 years.The warming mutation of SST3.4 regions occurred around 1978,after that El Nino effects on the climate strengthened.（2）The Weinan＇s climate trend to be warming and drying obviously in recent 50 years.The precipitation＇s and temperature＇s main cycle both were 27 years and experienced an increase ～ decrease ～ increase change process in 27a scale in step.The catastrophe points were 1978a and 1995a.（3）In the years that affected by El Nino,the temperature and cotton single production had an increase trends,but the precipitation had a decrease trend.Which was opposite to the years affected by La Nina.This study can provide some certain references for some relevant departments of ShaanXi province when analyze the cotton output and quality forecast.
出处
《农业系统科学与综合研究》
CSCD
2011年第4期413-417,共5页
System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture
基金
国家自然科学基金(40871052)
