摘要
为了合理地对管道风险进行评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的管道风险评估方法。根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了管道风险评估的模糊逻辑方法模型,根据模糊风险矩阵及模糊规则库等理论研究成果,对管道风险进行模糊推理,并得出给定管道系统的模糊风险指标值。以某段天然气管道的风险评估为实例,证实该方法能够合理地评估出给定管道系统的风险,并能得出各风险语言值(A,TA,TNA和NA)相对于总的风险指标的分布权重,为进一步确定可接受风险提供依据,为决策提供参考。
The paper proposes a new risk assessment method for pipeline based on the fuzzy-logic system.According to the theory of the fuzzy-logic system,a fuzzy-logic mode for pipeline risk assessment is set up;based on the research results of the fuzzy risk matrix and fuzzy rules,the pipeline risk is conducted fuzzy reasoning and the fuzzy risk index value of pipeline system is also given.Taking the risk assessment of a certain natural gas pipeline as an example,this method can give reasonable fuzzy risk index value.And the contribution of each risk category represented by fuzzy sets（A,TA,TNA and NA） to the total value of risk index R is also shown.Its application provides the basis for determining acceptable risk and reference for decision-making.
出处
《工业安全与环保》
北大核心
2011年第11期16-18,24,共4页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
关键词
管道风险
风险评估
模糊逻辑系统
模糊规则
模糊推理
事故频率
pipeline risk risk assessment fuzzy-logic system fuzzy rules fuzzy reasoning accident frequency
